一、電力供需形勢分析

伴隨全(quan)國(guo)供電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)緊(jin)平(ping)衡及多因(yin)素疊(die)加影(ying)響，2021年(nian)浙(zhe)江省出現(xian)“無(wu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)可用(yong)”和“有電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)限用(yong)”相互交織的(de)(de)普遍(bian)現(xian)象。從需求側看(kan)，2022年(nian)1季(ji)度(du)海(hai)鹽(yan)縣累計(ji)全(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)126175.79萬(wan)(wan)千瓦時(shi),同(tong)比上(shang)(shang)升(sheng)7.73%；全(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)最(zui)高負(fu)(fu)荷(he)為51.821萬(wan)(wan)千瓦,同(tong)比上(shang)(shang)升(sheng)22.75%，同(tong)期嘉興全(quan)市全(quan)高負(fu)(fu)荷(he)929.01萬(wan)(wan)千瓦，海(hai)鹽(yan)負(fu)(fu)荷(he)占比5.6%。上(shang)(shang)升(sheng)的(de)(de)主要原因(yin)：一是(shi)一季(ji)度(du)陰雨低溫天氣相對去年(nian)較多，使得(de)(de)空調取暖負(fu)(fu)荷(he)上(shang)(shang)升(sheng)明顯(xian),導(dao)致用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)一定幅度(du)上(shang)(shang)升(sheng)。二是(shi)國(guo)外(wai)勞(lao)動密集型產業產能往國(guo)內(nei)轉移(yi)，使得(de)(de)年(nian)初用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)形(xing)勢好(hao)轉。2022年(nian)全(quan)社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)預計(ji)為35.55億(yi)千瓦時(shi)，同(tong)比上(shang)(shang)升(sheng)4.93%，全(quan)社(she)會(hui)最(zui)高用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)負(fu)(fu)荷(he)預計(ji)達64.81萬(wan)(wan)千瓦，同(tong)比上(shang)(shang)升(sheng)4.14%。

從(cong)供給側看，2022年海(hai)鹽電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網暫無主網建(jian)設計(ji)劃，轄(xia)區內共(gong)有(you)1座地方公用(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠（恒(heng)洋(yang)(yang)熱電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)），一季度恒(heng)洋(yang)(yang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)廠累(lei)計(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量為4591.74萬(wan)(wan)千瓦時，同(tong)比下降(jiang)46.36%，預計(ji)2022年發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量為30283.73萬(wan)(wan)千瓦時，將(jiang)同(tong)比下降(jiang)10.62%。1-4月，全縣光(guang)伏用(yong)戶裝機容量35.73萬(wan)(wan)千瓦，同(tong)比增長(chang)14.19%；累(lei)計(ji)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量8449.98萬(wan)(wan)千瓦時，同(tong)比下降(jiang)6.69%，主要受陰(yin)雨天氣增多(duo)影響，使得光(guang)伏發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)效率不及(ji)同(tong)期(qi)。5-12月按2021年同(tong)期(qi)月發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)平(ping)均利用(yong)小時推(tui)算，預計(ji)全年光伏(fu)發電(dian)量(liang)為(wei)21978.47萬千瓦時，同(tong)比增長(chang)18.09%。

根據上(shang)述2022年現有電網輸送能力，以及全年、迎峰度夏(xia)期(qi)間本(ben)地區電力需(xu)求預測和(he)電網供應能力，勉強可達電力供需(xu)緊平(ping)衡，不排除短時出現供需(xu)錯位的情況(kuang)發(fa)生。

二、存在問題及對策建議

問題(ti)：復雜的(de)(de)(de)經(jing)濟環(huan)境(jing)和社會突發(fa)(fa)事件嚴重影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)了全社會用電(dian)狀況，這種不(bu)可預見性給我們年(nian)度(du)的(de)(de)(de)電(dian)量(liang)預測乃至于月度(du)電(dian)量(liang)預測工作帶(dai)來了一定的(de)(de)(de)難度(du)。新冠(guan)肺炎疫(yi)情(qing)暴發(fa)(fa)、國際形勢、宏觀(guan)調控(kong)、經(jing)濟結(jie)構調整、“碳(tan)達峰、碳(tan)中和”和環(huan)保(bao)督察(cha)等政策(ce)因(yin)素都(dou)造成電(dian)量(liang)預測工作難上(shang)加難。另外天(tian)(tian)氣情(qing)況也(ye)對電(dian)力(li)電(dian)量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)影(ying)(ying)響(xiang)較大(da)，縣(xian)域(yu)空調及地暖負荷(he)(he)比重持(chi)續提升，炎熱極端天(tian)(tian)氣下負荷(he)(he)可增加超10萬瓦，給電(dian)力(li)電(dian)量(liang)預測帶(dai)來極大(da)困擾。

對(dui)策(ce)：一(yi)是(shi)(shi)積(ji)極(ji)關(guan)注(zhu)國際、國內宏觀(guan)政策(ce)走(zou)勢，特別是(shi)(shi)關(guan)于(yu)海(hai)鹽(yan)縣傳統(tong)產業(ye)的(de)原料行(xing)情走(zou)勢，及(ji)時(shi)掌(zhang)握相關(guan)政策(ce)信(xin)息(xi)，做(zuo)好(hao)(hao)基本面的(de)預(yu)測(ce)。二是(shi)(shi)積(ji)極(ji)關(guan)注(zhu)清(qing)潔能源替代(dai)，可再生(sheng)能源的(de)消(xiao)納(na)、節能減排等方(fang)面的(de)最新動(dong)向和意見。跟蹤分(fen)析各行(xing)業(ye)用電量(liang)(liang)(liang)增長情況，及(ji)時(shi)了解重點企業(ye)生(sheng)產經(jing)營(ying)情況和用電波動(dong)較大的(de)行(xing)業(ye)發展形勢，深入分(fen)析電力市場走(zou)勢，掌(zhang)握行(xing)業(ye)發展趨勢。三是(shi)(shi)跟蹤分(fen)析電力市場，加(jia)強內外部溝(gou)通(tong)，對(dui)接地方(fang)政府收(shou)集相關(guan)信(xin)息(xi)，科學預(yu)測(ce)年度電力電量(liang)(liang)(liang)，做(zuo)好(hao)(hao)月度電量(liang)(liang)(liang)預(yu)測(ce)，滾(gun)動(dong)預(yu)測(ce)年度電力電量(liang)(liang)(liang)。四是(shi)(shi)及(ji)時(shi)關(guan)注(zhu)天氣變化情況，特別是(shi)(shi)極(ji)端天氣的(de)發生(sheng)概(gai)率，做(zuo)好(hao)(hao)電量(liang)(liang)(liang)平衡預(yu)測(ce)。