7月30日，中國電力企業(ye)聯合會在本部舉辦新(xin)聞(wen)(wen)發(fa)布會，中電聯秘書長(chang)、新(xin)聞(wen)(wen)發(fa)言人郝英杰發(fa)布《2025年上半年全國電力供需形勢(shi)分析預測報告(gao)》（以(yi)下簡稱“報告(gao)”）。

報告指出，2025年(nian)(nian)上半(ban)年(nian)(nian)，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)全(quan)(quan)社會用電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)4.84萬億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦時，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長3.7%。電(dian)(dian)力(li)生產(chan)供應方面，全(quan)(quan)國(guo)新增(zeng)(zeng)發電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機容(rong)量(liang)(liang)29332萬千(qian)(qian)瓦，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)14056萬千(qian)(qian)瓦，其中，風電(dian)(dian)和太陽能發電(dian)(dian)合計新增(zeng)(zeng)裝(zhuang)機26360萬千(qian)(qian)瓦，占新增(zeng)(zeng)發電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機總容(rong)量(liang)(liang)的比(bi)重近九成(cheng)(cheng)。上半(ban)年(nian)(nian)新能源發電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)合計占全(quan)(quan)口(kou)徑總發電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)比(bi)重為26.0%，比(bi)上年(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)期提高(gao)4.4個百分點，電(dian)(dian)力(li)行(xing)業綠色低碳(tan)轉型成(cheng)(cheng)效(xiao)顯(xian)著(zhu)。

報告預(yu)測，2025年我國(guo)宏觀經(jing)濟將繼續保持(chi)平穩增長，考慮到(dao)三季(ji)度高溫(wen)因素及上年四季(ji)度基數偏低因素，預(yu)計今年下半(ban)年用電量(liang)增速高于上半(ban)年，2025年全(quan)國(guo)全(quan)社會用電量(liang)預(yu)計同比增長5%-6%。若夏季(ji)氣溫(wen)再創歷史新高，則(ze)最高用電負荷可能達(da)到(dao)15.2-15.7億千瓦(wa)。

電(dian)力供應(ying)方面，預計2025年(nian)新投(tou)產發(fa)(fa)電(dian)裝機(ji)有望(wang)超過(guo)5億千(qian)瓦，再創歷史(shi)新高，其(qi)中新增(zeng)新能源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)裝機(ji)達(da)4億千(qian)瓦左(zuo)右(you)。2025年(nian)底(di)，全國(guo)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)裝機(ji)容(rong)量預計39億千(qian)瓦左(zuo)右(you)，同(tong)比增(zeng)長16.5%左(zuo)右(you)。

發布會(hui)上(shang)，中電聯統計(ji)與數智部(bu)、規劃發展部(bu)相(xiang)關負責人回答(da)了記者提(ti)問。人民日(ri)報、新華社、央(yang)視、經濟(ji)日(ri)報、科技日(ri)報等近20家媒體參加本(ben)次發布會(hui)。

以下為報告發(fa)布稿全文：

2025年上半年全國電力供需形勢分析預測報告

中國電力企業聯合會

今年以來(lai)，電力(li)(li)(li)行業認真貫徹習近平總(zong)書記關于(yu)能源電力(li)(li)(li)的重(zhong)要(yao)講(jiang)話和重(zhong)要(yao)指(zhi)示(shi)批示(shi)精(jing)神，以及“四個革命、一個合作(zuo)”能源安(an)(an)全(quan)新戰略，落實黨中(zhong)(zhong)央、國務院決策部署，弘揚電力(li)(li)(li)精(jing)神，攻堅(jian)克(ke)難，統籌做(zuo)好保(bao)供(gong)(gong)電、促轉型、穩(wen)投資、優服務等(deng)各(ge)項(xiang)工作(zuo)，為(wei)經(jing)濟社會發展和人民(min)美好生活(huo)提供(gong)(gong)了堅(jian)強電力(li)(li)(li)保(bao)障(zhang)。全(quan)國電力(li)(li)(li)系統安(an)(an)全(quan)穩(wen)定運行，電力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)應(ying)持(chi)續綠色低碳轉型，電力(li)(li)(li)消(xiao)費穩(wen)中(zhong)(zhong)有進、穩(wen)中(zhong)(zhong)向好，電力(li)(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)需總(zong)體平衡。

一、2025年上半年全國電力供需情況

（一）電力(li)消費需求(qiu)情況

上(shang)半年(nian)國(guo)民經濟運行總(zong)體平穩(wen)，穩(wen)中有進。全(quan)國(guo)全(quan)社(she)(she)會用電量4.84萬億千(qian)瓦(wa)時，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長3.7%；一(yi)、二季度全(quan)社(she)(she)會用電量同(tong)比(bi)分別(bie)增(zeng)長2.5%、4.9%。分月份看，1-2月、3月、4月、5月、6月全(quan)社(she)(she)會用電量同(tong)比(bi)分別(bie)增(zeng)長1.3%、4.8%、4.7%、4.4%、5.4%，總(zong)體呈現回(hui)升態勢。1-2月受上(shang)年(nian)閏年(nian)和氣溫(wen)偏暖因(yin)素疊加影(ying)響，電力消(xiao)費增(zeng)速偏低；3-5月電力消(xiao)費平穩(wen)回(hui)升至(zhi)4%以(yi)上(shang)；6月，因(yin)高溫(wen)天氣居民生活用電快速增(zeng)長，拉動全(quan)社(she)(she)會用電量回(hui)升至(zhi)5.4%。

一(yi)(yi)是(shi)第一(yi)(yi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業用電(dian)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長8.7%。上(shang)(shang)半年(nian)，第一(yi)(yi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業用電(dian)量(liang)677億千(qian)瓦時，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長8.7%，占全社會用電(dian)量(liang)比(bi)重為1.4%。分(fen)季度(du)看，一(yi)(yi)、二季度(du)第一(yi)(yi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業用電(dian)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)分(fen)別增(zeng)長8.7%和8.6%，第一(yi)(yi)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業用電(dian)量(liang)保持了平穩(wen)快速增(zeng)長。分(fen)行(xing)業看，上(shang)(shang)半年(nian)畜牧(mu)業、漁業、農業用電(dian)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)分(fen)別增(zeng)長15.3%、6.1%、4.5%。

二(er)(er)是(shi)第(di)(di)二(er)(er)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)2.4%。上(shang)(shang)半年(nian)(nian)，第(di)(di)二(er)(er)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)3.15萬億千(qian)瓦時(shi)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)2.4%，占(zhan)全(quan)社會用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)重為65.0%，對全(quan)社會用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)貢獻(xian)率為43.0%。一(yi)(yi)、二(er)(er)季度(du)(du)第(di)(di)二(er)(er)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)分別增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)1.9%和(he)(he)2.9%。上(shang)(shang)半年(nian)(nian)，制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)2.1%。分大類看，四大高(gao)(gao)載能行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)上(shang)(shang)半年(nian)(nian)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)0.9%。其(qi)中，化學原料和(he)(he)化學制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)(pin)(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)3.7%，黑色金屬冶煉(lian)和(he)(he)壓(ya)延加(jia)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)2.0%，有色金屬冶煉(lian)和(he)(he)壓(ya)延加(jia)工(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)0.7%，非金屬礦(kuang)物制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)(pin)(pin)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)降低4.7%。高(gao)(gao)技術及(ji)裝備制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)上(shang)(shang)半年(nian)(nian)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)3.8%，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)高(gao)(gao)于同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)平(ping)(ping)均增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)水平(ping)(ping)1.7個(ge)百分點；一(yi)(yi)、二(er)(er)季度(du)(du)高(gao)(gao)技術及(ji)裝備制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)分別增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)3.6%和(he)(he)3.9%。9個(ge)子(zi)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)中，除電(dian)(dian)氣機械和(he)(he)器材制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)外，均實現正增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)，其(qi)中，汽車(che)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)（8.8%）、通用(yong)(yong)(yong)設備制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)（6.8%）、專用(yong)(yong)(yong)設備制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)（5.5%）、儀器儀表制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)（5.3%）用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)超(chao)過5%。汽車(che)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)中的(de)(de)新能源車(che)整車(che)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)繼(ji)續保持高(gao)(gao)速(su)(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)，上(shang)(shang)半年(nian)(nian)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)28.7%。消(xiao)費品(pin)(pin)(pin)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)上(shang)(shang)半年(nian)(nian)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)0.2%，12個(ge)子(zi)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)中有7個(ge)保持正增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)，其(qi)中食(shi)品(pin)(pin)(pin)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)（5.7%）用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)領先。受外部(bu)貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)環境影響(xiang)，紡(fang)織業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、紡(fang)織服(fu)裝/服(fu)飾業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、文教/工(gong)(gong)美(mei)/體育和(he)(he)娛(yu)樂(le)用(yong)(yong)(yong)品(pin)(pin)(pin)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、皮革/毛皮/羽毛及(ji)其(qi)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)(pin)(pin)和(he)(he)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)鞋(xie)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)等(deng)對外貿(mao)(mao)易(yi)依存度(du)(du)較高(gao)(gao)的(de)(de)子(zi)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)二(er)(er)季度(du)(du)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)一(yi)(yi)季度(du)(du)有所回(hui)落(luo)。6月(yue)當(dang)月(yue)，除食(shi)品(pin)(pin)(pin)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)外，消(xiao)費品(pin)(pin)(pin)制(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)其(qi)他子(zi)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)均比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上(shang)(shang)月(yue)用(yong)(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)有所提高(gao)(gao)。

三(san)是第三(san)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)7.1%。上半年(nian)，第三(san)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)9164億千瓦時，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)7.1%，占全社會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)比(bi)(bi)重為18.9%，對全社會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)的貢(gong)獻率為34.8%。其中，一、二季度第三(san)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)分別增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)5.2%和9.0%。上半年(nian)，信息(xi)(xi)傳輸/軟(ruan)件和信息(xi)(xi)技術服務(wu)業(ye)（14.8%）、批發和零售業(ye)（11.4%）用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)超過(guo)第三(san)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)整體增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)水平(ping)。在移(yi)動互聯網、大數(shu)據、云計算等快(kuai)速(su)(su)發展帶動下，互聯網和相關服務(wu)業(ye)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)27.4%；電(dian)動汽車高速(su)(su)發展，拉動充換電(dian)服務(wu)業(ye)上半年(nian)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)42.4%。

四是城(cheng)鄉居(ju)民(min)生(sheng)活(huo)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長4.9%。上(shang)(shang)半年(nian)，城(cheng)鄉居(ju)民(min)生(sheng)活(huo)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量7093億千瓦時，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長4.9%，占全社會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量比(bi)(bi)重為14.6%，對全社會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量增(zeng)長的貢獻(xian)率為19.1%。其(qi)中，一、二(er)季度城(cheng)鄉居(ju)民(min)生(sheng)活(huo)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)分別增(zeng)長1.5%和(he)9.3%。6月，華東、華中、西南等地區氣溫同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)明顯提高，重慶(qing)、浙(zhe)江(jiang)、上(shang)(shang)海、四川居(ju)民(min)生(sheng)活(huo)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)分別增(zeng)長40.9%、33.7%、32.2%和(he)29.5%，寧夏、江(jiang)西、云南、福建、湖南、江(jiang)蘇居(ju)民(min)生(sheng)活(huo)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量增(zeng)速均超過15%，拉動(dong)當月全國城(cheng)鄉居(ju)民(min)生(sheng)活(huo)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長10.8%。

五是東(dong)部(bu)地區用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)速(su)相對領先。上半年，東(dong)、中(zhong)、西部(bu)和東(dong)北(bei)地區全(quan)社(she)會用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)同比(bi)分別增(zeng)長4.4%、3.8%、2.8%和3.1%。上半年，全(quan)國29個(ge)省(sheng)份全(quan)社(she)會用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)同比(bi)正增(zeng)長，其(qi)中(zhong)，西藏（12.8%）、貴州（9.0%）、浙江(jiang)（7.1%）、福建（6.3%）、山西（6.3%）、重慶（6.2%）、江(jiang)西（5.3%）、云(yun)南(nan)（5.2%）、上海（5.2%）9個(ge)省(sheng)份用(yong)電(dian)量(liang)同比(bi)增(zeng)速(su)超(chao)過5%。

（二(er)）電力生產供(gong)應情況

上半(ban)年，全國重點調查企業電力完(wan)成(cheng)投(tou)(tou)資合計(ji)6546億(yi)元，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)9.6%。截至(zhi)2025年6月底，全國全口徑發電裝機容量36.5億(yi)千瓦(wa)，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)18.7%。從分類型投(tou)(tou)資、發電裝機增(zeng)速及結(jie)構變化(hua)等情況看(kan)，電力行業綠色低碳轉型成(cheng)效顯著。

一(yi)是風電和太陽(yang)能發(fa)(fa)(fa)電合(he)(he)計(ji)新增(zeng)(zeng)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)占新增(zeng)(zeng)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)總容(rong)量(liang)(liang)的(de)比(bi)重(zhong)近九成。上半年，全(quan)國新增(zeng)(zeng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容(rong)量(liang)(liang)29332萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)14056萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)。其中，新增(zeng)(zeng)常規水電裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)110萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，抽(chou)水蓄能283萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)。新增(zeng)(zeng)并(bing)網(wang)風電裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)5139萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)2555萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)。新增(zeng)(zeng)并(bing)網(wang)太陽(yang)能發(fa)(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)21221萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)(jia)10973萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，占同期全(quan)國總新增(zeng)(zeng)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)的(de)72.3%。風電和太陽(yang)能發(fa)(fa)(fa)電合(he)(he)計(ji)新增(zeng)(zeng)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)26360萬(wan)千(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，占新增(zeng)(zeng)發(fa)(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)總容(rong)量(liang)(liang)的(de)比(bi)重(zhong)近九成，達到89.9%。

二是非化石能(neng)源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)規(gui)模占比超六(liu)成(cheng)，太陽能(neng)裝(zhuang)機(ji)達11億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)。截至6月底，全國全口徑發(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量(liang)36.5億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)。分類型看(kan)，火電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)14.7億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)，其(qi)中(zhong)煤電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)12.1億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)；水電(dian)(dian)4.4億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)，其(qi)中(zhong)抽(chou)水蓄能(neng)6129萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)；核電(dian)(dian)6091萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)；并網風電(dian)(dian)5.73億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)，同(tong)比增長(chang)(chang)22.7%，其(qi)中(zhong)，陸上風電(dian)(dian)5.28億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)、海上風電(dian)(dian)4420萬(wan)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)；并網太陽能(neng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)11.0億(yi)(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)，同(tong)比增長(chang)(chang)54.2%。

截至(zhi)6月底(di)，非化(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容量22.2億千瓦(wa)，同比增(zeng)長29.8%，占總裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)容量比重為60.9%，比上年同期提高5.2個(ge)百分點(dian)。全(quan)國(guo)電力(li)供應系(xi)列指(zhi)數(shu)中的(de)非化(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)規(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)指(zhi)數(shu)為225.4，“十四五”以來(lai)(lai)非化(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)規(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)累計增(zeng)長了(le)125.4%；其中，新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)規(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)指(zhi)數(shu)為304.5，“十四五”以來(lai)(lai)新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)規(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)累計增(zeng)長了(le)204.5%，同比增(zeng)長40.3%。6月底(di)，化(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)規(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)指(zhi)數(shu)為117.5，“十四五”以來(lai)(lai)化(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)規(gui)(gui)模(mo)(mo)(mo)累計增(zeng)長了(le)17.5%，累計增(zeng)速低于同期非化(hua)(hua)石(shi)能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)電裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)增(zeng)速107.9個(ge)百分點(dian)。

三(san)是新能(neng)源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量保持快速增(zeng)長，占總發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量比(bi)重超四分(fen)之一(yi)。上半年(nian)，規上工(gong)業(ye)水電(dian)(dian)、火(huo)電(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量分(fen)別下降2.9%、2.4%，太陽(yang)能(neng)、核電(dian)(dian)、風電(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量分(fen)別增(zeng)長20.0%、11.3%、10.6%。上半年(nian)非化石能(neng)源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量占全口徑總發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量比(bi)重為43.1%，同比(bi)提高3.7個百分(fen)點；新能(neng)源發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量合(he)計占全口徑總發(fa)電(dian)(dian)量比(bi)重為26.0%，同比(bi)提高4.4個百分(fen)點。

四是核(he)電(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)設(she)備利用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)提(ti)高(gao)，其他類型發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)設(she)備利用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)。上(shang)半年(nian)，全國(guo)6000千瓦(wa)及以上(shang)水電(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)設(she)備利用(yong)小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)為(wei)1377小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)低(di)(di)(di)100小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)。火電(dian)(dian)1968小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)低(di)(di)(di)130小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)；其中煤電(dian)(dian)2056小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)低(di)(di)(di)147小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，氣電(dian)(dian)1007小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)低(di)(di)(di)78小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)。核(he)電(dian)(dian)3882小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)提(ti)高(gao)167小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)。并網風(feng)電(dian)(dian)1087小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)低(di)(di)(di)47小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，并網太陽(yang)能(neng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)560小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)降(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)低(di)(di)(di)66小(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)時(shi)(shi)；與風(feng)光資源(yuan)水平較常年(nian)同(tong)(tong)期略(lve)低(di)(di)(di)，風(feng)電(dian)(dian)和太陽(yang)能(neng)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)裝機快(kuai)速增長有關。

五是(shi)電(dian)網(wang)(wang)工程投(tou)(tou)資快速增(zeng)(zeng)長。上(shang)半(ban)年，全國電(dian)網(wang)(wang)工程建(jian)設(she)完成投(tou)(tou)資2911億元(yuan)，同比增(zeng)(zeng)長14.6%，在“兩重(zhong)”“兩新”政策(ce)落地、新能源大(da)規模接入、電(dian)網(wang)(wang)數字(zi)化智能化升級以(yi)及特高壓等重(zhong)大(da)項目建(jian)設(she)帶動下，電(dian)網(wang)(wang)投(tou)(tou)資構成中(zhong)的設(she)備(bei)投(tou)(tou)資同比增(zeng)(zeng)長39.6%。上(shang)半(ban)年，全國新增(zeng)(zeng)220千(qian)伏及以(yi)上(shang)變電(dian)設(she)備(bei)容量（交流）15647萬千(qian)伏安，同比多投(tou)(tou)產(chan)3391萬千(qian)伏安；新增(zeng)(zeng)220千(qian)伏及以(yi)上(shang)輸電(dian)線(xian)路長度18341千(qian)米，同比多投(tou)(tou)產(chan)4950千(qian)米。

六是跨區(qu)、跨省輸送(song)電量(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比較快(kuai)增長。上(shang)半(ban)年(nian)，全(quan)國(guo)完成(cheng)跨區(qu)輸送(song)電量(liang)4366億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比增長11.8%。其(qi)中，西北外送(song)電量(liang)1774億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比增長9.8%，占全(quan)國(guo)跨區(qu)送(song)電量(liang)的40.6%；東(dong)北、西南(nan)、南(nan)方外送(song)電量(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比分別(bie)增長44.7%、15.0%和12.4%。上(shang)半(ban)年(nian)，全(quan)國(guo)完成(cheng)跨省輸送(song)電量(liang)9543億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比增長8.4%，其(qi)中，內蒙古（1509億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)）、山西（717億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)）、新疆（593億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)）、四川（458億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)）、寧夏(xia)（439億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)）、陜(shan)西（355億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)）、貴州（331億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)）、甘肅（313億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)）8個省份(fen)凈輸出(chu)電量(liang)規模超(chao)過(guo)300億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)時(shi)(shi)。

（三）全國電力供需(xu)情況

上(shang)半年(nian)，電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)行(xing)業企業全力(li)(li)以赴抓(zhua)好保電(dian)(dian)保暖保供(gong)工作(zuo)，全國電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)系統安全穩定運行(xing)。一(yi)季(ji)度，氣溫(wen)整體(ti)偏(pian)暖，電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供(gong)應(ying)整體(ti)充足(zu)，全國供(gong)需(xu)(xu)平(ping)衡(heng)有余(yu)。二(er)季(ji)度，共有3輪高溫(wen)過程(cheng)影(ying)響華北、西南等(deng)地區，中(zhong)東(dong)部地區出現(xian)區域性高溫(wen)過程(cheng)，拉動部分(fen)省份用電(dian)(dian)負荷屢創新高，電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供(gong)應(ying)方面整體(ti)充足(zu)，供(gong)需(xu)(xu)總體(ti)平(ping)衡(heng)。

二、全國電力供需形勢預測

（一）電力消費預測

預(yu)計(ji)2025年(nian)全(quan)年(nian)全(quan)社會用(yong)電(dian)量同比增(zeng)長(chang)5%-6%。宏觀經(jing)濟增(zeng)長(chang)情(qing)況是(shi)影(ying)響電(dian)力消費(fei)增(zeng)長(chang)的最(zui)主要因素。2025年(nian)國(guo)務(wu)院《政府工作報告》提出全(quan)年(nian)GDP增(zeng)長(chang)預(yu)期目標(biao)為(wei)5%左右。國(guo)務(wu)院及(ji)有關部門相(xiang)繼(ji)印(yin)發《關于(yu)2025年(nian)加力擴(kuo)圍實施大規(gui)模設(she)備(bei)更(geng)新(xin)和消費(fei)品以舊換(huan)新(xin)政策(ce)的通知(zhi)》《提振消費(fei)專項行動方案》等政策(ce)文(wen)件，以全(quan)方位擴(kuo)大國(guo)內需求，為(wei)經(jing)濟穩增(zeng)長(chang)注入動能。預(yu)計(ji)2025年(nian)我國(guo)宏觀經(jing)濟將繼(ji)續保(bao)持穩定增(zeng)長(chang)，拉動電(dian)力消費(fei)需求平穩增(zeng)長(chang)。考慮到(dao)三季(ji)度高溫因素及(ji)上年(nian)四季(ji)度基數偏低(di)因素，預(yu)計(ji)今年(nian)下半年(nian)用(yong)電(dian)量增(zeng)速高于(yu)上半年(nian)，預(yu)計(ji)2025年(nian)全(quan)國(guo)全(quan)社會用(yong)電(dian)量同比增(zeng)長(chang)5%-6%。7月以來(lai)，多(duo)地電(dian)力負荷(he)(he)快速攀升，全(quan)國(guo)最(zui)高負荷(he)(he)屢(lv)創新(xin)高，7月17日達(da)到(dao)15.08億千瓦。若夏季(ji)氣溫再創歷史新(xin)高，則(ze)最(zui)高用(yong)電(dian)負荷(he)(he)可能達(da)到(dao)15.2-15.7億千瓦。

（二）電力供應預測

預(yu)計2025年新投產發(fa)(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)有望超過5億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，非化石(shi)能源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)規模(mo)占(zhan)(zhan)比(bi)將在61%左(zuo)右(you)。預(yu)計2025年全(quan)國新增發(fa)(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)規模(mo)有望超過5億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，再創歷史新高，其中(zhong)新增新能源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)達4億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)右(you)。2025年底(di)全(quan)國發(fa)(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)容量預(yu)計約39億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，同(tong)比(bi)增長16.5%左(zuo)右(you)。其中(zhong)，非化石(shi)能源(yuan)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)約24億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，占(zhan)(zhan)總裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)的比(bi)重在61%左(zuo)右(you)。其中(zhong)，水電(dian)4.5億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)、并(bing)網風電(dian)6.4億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)、并(bing)網太陽(yang)能發(fa)(fa)電(dian)12億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)、核電(dian)6500萬千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)、生物質發(fa)(fa)電(dian)4800萬千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)右(you)。火(huo)電(dian)約15.5億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)，其中(zhong)煤(mei)電(dian)12.7億(yi)千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)左(zuo)右(you)，煤(mei)電(dian)所(suo)占(zhan)(zhan)總裝(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)比(bi)重將降至三分之(zhi)一(yi)以下。

（三）電(dian)力供需形勢預測

預(yu)計(ji)迎峰(feng)度夏期(qi)間，全國電(dian)力供需(xu)總體平衡(heng)。綜合考(kao)慮需(xu)求(qiu)增長(chang)、電(dian)源投產以及(ji)一(yi)次能(neng)源情(qing)況，預(yu)計(ji)今年迎峰(feng)度夏期(qi)間全國電(dian)力供需(xu)形勢總體平衡(heng)，華(hua)東(dong)、華(hua)中、西南等區域，江蘇、浙(zhe)江、安(an)徽等省級電(dian)網部分(fen)用(yong)電(dian)高峰(feng)時段可能(neng)存在供需(xu)偏緊，通(tong)過(guo)跨(kua)省跨(kua)區余缺互濟后，電(dian)力供需(xu)可實現緊平衡(heng)。

注釋：

1.各項統計數據均未包(bao)括香港特(te)別行政(zheng)區(qu)、澳(ao)門特(te)別行政(zheng)區(qu)和臺(tai)灣省。部分(fen)(fen)數據因四舍五(wu)入的(de)原因，存(cun)在總計與(yu)分(fen)(fen)項合計不等的(de)情況。

2.規模(mo)以上電(dian)廠發電(dian)量(liang)統計范圍為(wei)年主營業務收入2000萬(wan)元及(ji)以上的電(dian)廠發電(dian)量(liang)，數據來源(yuan)于國家統計局。

3.四大高載能行業(ye)包(bao)括：化學(xue)原料和化學(xue)制品(pin)(pin)制造(zao)業(ye)、非金屬(shu)礦物制品(pin)(pin)業(ye)、黑(hei)色(se)金屬(shu)冶煉和壓(ya)延(yan)加工業(ye)、有色(se)金屬(shu)冶煉和壓(ya)延(yan)加工業(ye)4個(ge)行業(ye)。

4.高(gao)技術及裝備(bei)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)包括(kuo)：醫藥制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)、金屬(shu)制(zhi)(zhi)品業(ye)、通(tong)用設(she)備(bei)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)、專(zhuan)用設(she)備(bei)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)、汽(qi)車(che)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)、鐵路/船舶(bo)/航空航天和(he)其他(ta)(ta)運輸(shu)設(she)備(bei)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)、電氣機(ji)械和(he)器材(cai)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)、計算機(ji)/通(tong)信和(he)其他(ta)(ta)電子設(she)備(bei)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)、儀(yi)器儀(yi)表制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)(zao)業(ye)9個行業(ye)。

5.消費品(pin)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)包括：農副(fu)食品(pin)加工業(ye)、食品(pin)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)、酒/飲料及精(jing)制(zhi)(zhi)茶(cha)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)、煙(yan)草(cao)制(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)業(ye)、紡(fang)織(zhi)業(ye)、紡(fang)織(zhi)服(fu)(fu)裝/服(fu)(fu)飾業(ye)、皮(pi)革(ge)/毛(mao)皮(pi)/羽(yu)毛(mao)及其制(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)和(he)制(zhi)(zhi)鞋業(ye)、木材加工和(he)木/竹(zhu)/藤/棕/草(cao)制(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)業(ye)、家具制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)、造(zao)(zao)紙和(he)紙制(zhi)(zhi)品(pin)業(ye)、印刷(shua)和(he)記(ji)錄媒(mei)介復制(zhi)(zhi)業(ye)、文(wen)教/工美/體育和(he)娛樂用品(pin)制(zhi)(zhi)造(zao)(zao)業(ye)12個(ge)行業(ye)。

6.東部地(di)區(qu)包(bao)(bao)括北(bei)京、天津(jin)、河(he)北(bei)、上海(hai)、江(jiang)蘇、浙(zhe)江(jiang)、福建、山東、廣(guang)東、海(hai)南(nan)10個省(sheng)（市）；中部地(di)區(qu)包(bao)(bao)括山西(xi)、安徽、江(jiang)西(xi)、河(he)南(nan)、湖北(bei)、湖南(nan)6個省(sheng)；西(xi)部地(di)區(qu)包(bao)(bao)括內蒙(meng)古、廣(guang)西(xi)、重慶、四川、貴州(zhou)、云南(nan)、西(xi)藏、陜(shan)西(xi)、甘肅、青海(hai)、寧夏(xia)、新疆12個省(sheng)（市、自治(zhi)區(qu)）；東北(bei)地(di)區(qu)包(bao)(bao)括遼寧、吉林、黑(hei)龍江(jiang)3個省(sheng)。

7.新(xin)能(neng)源發電(dian)類型包括并(bing)網(wang)風電(dian)、并(bing)網(wang)太陽能(neng)發電(dian)以及生物質發電(dian)。