近(jin)日，西班(ban)牙(ya)和葡萄(tao)牙(ya)突(tu)發(fa)大(da)范圍停(ting)電(dian)事(shi)故(gu)，馬德(de)里、巴(ba)塞羅(luo)那(nei)、里斯本等主要城(cheng)市(shi)電(dian)力(li)(li)中(zhong)斷(duan)，伊比利亞半島全面陷(xian)入黑(hei)暗，停(ting)電(dian)甚(shen)至波(bo)及法國南(nan)部部分(fen)地區，約有6000萬人受到影響。此次停(ting)電(dian)造成大(da)范圍交通癱瘓、通信中(zhong)斷(duan)等嚴重后(hou)果(guo)，許多醫(yi)院甚(shen)至啟用備用發(fa)電(dian)機以維持運(yun)行(xing)。這(zhe)(zhe)是歐洲(zhou)近(jin)20年(nian)來最嚴重的電(dian)力(li)(li)中(zhong)斷(duan)事(shi)件(jian)之一，西班(ban)牙(ya)首相佩德(de)羅(luo)·桑(sang)切斯形容(rong)“這(zhe)(zhe)是前所未有的事(shi)件(jian)”，此次停(ting)電(dian)事(shi)故(gu)暴露出歐洲(zhou)能(neng)源(yuan)系(xi)統(tong)在可再生能(neng)源(yuan)快速發(fa)展背景(jing)下的脆(cui)弱(ruo)性和安全隱患。

事(shi)故發生(sheng)(sheng)后，西(xi)(xi)(xi)班牙和(he)葡萄牙緊急展開(kai)聯(lian)合調查以(yi)查明停(ting)電(dian)(dian)(dian)原因。根(gen)據西(xi)(xi)(xi)班牙電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)運營商紅電(dian)(dian)(dian)集團(tuan)(REE)的(de)初(chu)步報告，此次大規(gui)模(mo)停(ting)電(dian)(dian)(dian)由(you)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供應(ying)的(de)突(tu)然大幅下降(jiang)引發。事(shi)故發生(sheng)(sheng)當天中午，電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)在短短5秒內(nei)失(shi)去(qu)了15吉瓦的(de)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)能力(li)，相當于當時西(xi)(xi)(xi)班牙全國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)需(xu)求的(de)60%，如此大規(gui)模(mo)的(de)供電(dian)(dian)(dian)驟減(jian)超出了歐(ou)洲電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)設計的(de)應(ying)對范圍，直接導(dao)致西(xi)(xi)(xi)法之間的(de)跨境輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)聯(lian)絡線跳閘斷(duan)開(kai)，伊比利亞半島電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統因此與歐(ou)洲主網(wang)脫(tuo)離同(tong)步，西(xi)(xi)(xi)班牙—葡萄牙電(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)內(nei)部出現嚴重的(de)供需(xu)失(shi)衡，進而發生(sheng)(sheng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)壓崩潰并全面停(ting)電(dian)(dian)(dian)。

目前，兩國相(xiang)關部門(men)仍(reng)在調查此(ci)次(ci)供(gong)電驟降的(de)深層原(yuan)因，僅初步排除了網(wang)絡(luo)攻(gong)擊和極(ji)端天氣的(de)可能(neng)性。值得注意的(de)是，這場災(zai)難性停電發生(sheng)在西班(ban)牙剛(gang)剛(gang)慶(qing)祝(zhu)其國家電網(wang)“首次(ci)在工作日(ri)實現100%可再生(sheng)能(neng)源供(gong)電”的(de)6天后，引發了輿論對歐洲能(neng)源轉型穩(wen)定性和可行性的(de)質疑。

近(jin)年來，西(xi)班(ban)牙(ya)和葡萄牙(ya)大(da)力(li)推進(jin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)轉型(xing)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)供應中清(qing)潔能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)占(zhan)比屢創新高(gao)。2024年，兩國(guo)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量中超過56%來自(zi)可(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)，包括風(feng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、太(tai)(tai)陽能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、水力(li)等(deng)，若加上核能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)，兩國(guo)合計約(yue)82%的電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)已(yi)實現清(qing)潔化。高(gao)比例(li)(li)的風(feng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)和太(tai)(tai)陽能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)讓伊比利亞(ya)半島成為(wei)歐(ou)洲綠色能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)的先行者之一，但(dan)也對(dui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)的穩(wen)定(ding)調控提出(chu)(chu)了更高(gao)要求。可(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)的間(jian)歇(xie)性(xing)和弱慣量特(te)性(xing)使電(dian)(dian)(dian)網更易(yi)受(shou)到(dao)擾動，風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)機組和光伏逆變器并不像傳(chuan)統(tong)燃煤、燃氣機組可(ke)通過大(da)型(xing)旋(xuan)轉機械提供系(xi)統(tong)慣性(xing)，一旦電(dian)(dian)(dian)網受(shou)到(dao)沖擊，頻率變化更容(rong)易(yi)脫離控制。正如國(guo)際能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)署指出(chu)(chu)的，高(gao)比例(li)(li)可(ke)變能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)會(hui)帶(dai)來次秒級(ji)穩(wen)定(ding)性(xing)的運維挑戰，如果(guo)缺(que)乏相(xiang)應的靈活(huo)調節(jie)(jie)資(zi)源(yuan)來平衡，當風(feng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)或光能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)機出(chu)(chu)力(li)驟增(zeng)驟降時(shi)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)網就可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)出(chu)(chu)現電(dian)(dian)(dian)壓或頻率超限(xian)。當前，西(xi)班(ban)牙(ya)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)的儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)和備用(yong)調節(jie)(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力(li)相(xiang)對(dui)不足(zu)，抽水蓄能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)站和電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)等(deng)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)裝(zhuang)機僅占(zhan)總裝(zhuang)機容(rong)量的約(yue)2.65%，這一比例(li)(li)偏低意味著當可(ke)再(zai)(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)輸(shu)出(chu)(chu)大(da)幅波(bo)動時(shi)，系(xi)統(tong)內可(ke)以迅速調配的儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)緩沖非常有限(xian)。

此(ci)外(wai)，本次(ci)(ci)停(ting)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)事(shi)故(gu)(gu)凸顯了歐(ou)(ou)洲(zhou)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)互聯網(wang)絡(luo)的(de)(de)薄弱性(xing)。西班(ban)牙(ya)和葡萄牙(ya)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)彼此(ci)緊(jin)密相連，但受制于(yu)(yu)比(bi)利牛斯(si)山脈地理障(zhang)礙，與歐(ou)(ou)洲(zhou)大陸(lu)的(de)(de)跨(kua)國(guo)聯絡(luo)相對有(you)限。多年(nian)來，西葡電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)與法(fa)國(guo)等鄰(lin)國(guo)僅有(you)少數幾條輸電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)通道相連，總互聯容量僅有(you)約(yue)3977兆瓦(wa)，約(yue)占西班(ban)牙(ya)裝(zhuang)機(ji)容量的(de)(de)3%，這(zhe)一水平(ping)遠低于(yu)(yu)歐(ou)(ou)盟能(neng)源和氣候變化政策框(kuang)架(jia)中設定的(de)(de)2030年(nian)達到15%的(de)(de)目標。伊比(bi)利亞(ya)半(ban)島在歐(ou)(ou)洲(zhou)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)中幾乎(hu)相當(dang)于(yu)(yu)一個“能(neng)源孤島”——平(ping)時(shi)兩國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)基本自(zi)給自(zi)足(zu)，但遇到危機(ji)時(shi)則難以從歐(ou)(ou)洲(zhou)大陸(lu)獲得(de)足(zu)夠支援。這(zhe)次(ci)(ci)停(ting)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)事(shi)故(gu)(gu)中，西班(ban)牙(ya)—法(fa)國(guo)跨(kua)境聯絡(luo)線的(de)(de)故(gu)(gu)障(zhang)使伊比(bi)利亞(ya)半(ban)島電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)瞬間與歐(ou)(ou)洲(zhou)其他地區(qu)隔絕，失去了外(wai)部電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)支援的(de)(de)緩(huan)沖(chong)。當(dang)內部平(ping)衡被打(da)破時(shi)，孤立的(de)(de)半(ban)島電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網(wang)只能(neng)獨自(zi)承受沖(chong)擊，因而(er)更容易全面崩潰。

西葡停(ting)電(dian)事故暴露出歐(ou)洲能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)轉型(xing)過程中(zhong)潛在(zai)的(de)結(jie)構(gou)性風(feng)險，同(tong)時也為(wei)(wei)歐(ou)洲能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)系統(tong)敲(qiao)響警鐘(zhong)。為(wei)(wei)應(ying)對氣候變(bian)化(hua)(hua)和(he)地緣(yuan)政治風(feng)險挑(tiao)戰，歐(ou)洲各(ge)國正(zheng)大(da)力(li)推(tui)動從化(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)向可(ke)再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)的(de)轉型(xing)。電(dian)力(li)系統(tong)正(zheng)經歷百年以(yi)來最大(da)規(gui)模的(de)一(yi)次架構(gou)轉變(bian)：由以(yi)集中(zhong)、可(ke)控(kong)的(de)化(hua)(hua)石(shi)(shi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)電(dian)廠(chang)為(wei)(wei)主，逐步(bu)過渡到以(yi)分散、難(nan)以(yi)精確調控(kong)的(de)風(feng)能(neng)(neng)(neng)和(he)太陽能(neng)(neng)(neng)為(wei)(wei)主。這種轉型(xing)雖然(ran)清潔環保，但在(zai)過渡期(qi)難(nan)以(yi)確保其“可(ke)靠性”。同(tong)時，歐(ou)洲層面的(de)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)政策目(mu)標(biao)促使(shi)電(dian)力(li)系統(tong)面臨加(jia)速變(bian)革壓力(li)。歐(ou)盟(meng)已將2030年可(ke)再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)占終端(duan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)消費(fei)的(de)法(fa)定目(mu)標(biao)從32%提高到至少(shao)42.5%，這意(yi)味(wei)著(zhu)未來幾年，歐(ou)洲需要比過去加(jia)倍地增(zeng)加(jia)風(feng)電(dian)、光伏(fu)裝機(ji)和(he)產量(liang)，如(ru)果電(dian)網基礎設施、調度策略和(he)市場機(ji)制無法(fa)同(tong)步(bu)演進，那么能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)結(jie)構(gou)的(de)巨變(bian)可(ke)能(neng)(neng)(neng)埋下系統(tong)性風(feng)險隱患。

歐(ou)洲(zhou)能源專家表示，本次伊比(bi)利(li)亞半島停(ting)電(dian)(dian)正(zheng)(zheng)是對高比(bi)例(li)清(qing)潔能源電(dian)(dian)網的一次壓力測試，提醒(xing)人們(men)在追求氣(qi)候(hou)(hou)目標的同時不可忽視供電(dian)(dian)安全。只有(you)同步(bu)推進電(dian)(dian)網現(xian)代化、儲能布局和歐(ou)洲(zhou)能源基礎(chu)設施一體化，歐(ou)洲(zhou)才能在實現(xian)氣(qi)候(hou)(hou)目標的同時確保不再(zai)發生(sheng)如此大規模的供電(dian)(dian)中斷，真正(zheng)(zheng)做到能源清(qing)潔轉型(xing)與能源安全雙贏。