2025年亞太(tai)市(shi)場大(da)(da)儲(chu)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機持續高增，中(zhong)國(guo)及(ji)澳(ao)大(da)(da)利(li)(li)亞貢獻主要增量。TrendForce預(yu)計2025年亞太(tai)大(da)(da)儲(chu)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機量將達116GWh，同比(bi)增長37%，占(zhan)比(bi)高達92%。其中(zhong)，大(da)(da)儲(chu)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機主要以中(zhong)國(guo)和澳(ao)大(da)(da)利(li)(li)亞為主，澳(ao)大(da)(da)利(li)(li)亞電(dian)網不穩定疊加能(neng)源轉型加速，儲(chu)能(neng)需(xu)求(qiu)體量龐大(da)(da)。此(ci)外，電(dian)力市(shi)場波動較大(da)(da)、負電(dian)價次數頻發(fa)為儲(chu)能(neng)盈利(li)(li)創造良(liang)好(hao)條件。圖：2025年中(zhong)國(guo)及(ji)澳(ao)大(da)(da)利(li)(li)亞儲(chu)能(neng)場景裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機需(xu)求(qiu)占(zhan)比(bi)預(yu)測

根據澳(ao)大利亞輸電運營商AEMO統計數據，目(mu)前(qian)預期(qi)及計劃(hua)(hua)中(zhong)的(de)儲(chu)(chu)能項(xiang)目(mu)規100GW，其中(zhong)計劃(hua)(hua)于2025、2026年(nian)開(kai)始商業運行的(de)大儲(chu)(chu)項(xiang)目(mu)規模分(fen)別約(yue)為10GWh、13GWh，潛在(zai)項(xiang)目(mu)的(de)釋放(fang)將支撐2025年(nian)大儲(chu)(chu)裝(zhuang)機的(de)高增。

澳大利(li)亞儲能(neng)市(shi)場現狀

電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)基(ji)礎(chu)設(she)施與儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)需求：澳(ao)大(da)利亞國(guo)家電(dian)(dian)力(li)市場（NEM）輸電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)狹長、低密度(du)分(fen)(fen)布，發(fa)電(dian)(dian)機組(zu)和負(fu)荷中(zhong)心分(fen)(fen)散，五個州(zhou)級輸電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)絡通過互聯線連接，互聯線跳閘風險高。近年(nian)來(lai)(lai)，極端天氣如森林大(da)火和風暴愈發(fa)頻繁，嚴重(zhong)威脅著電(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)穩定安全及各州(zhou)電(dian)(dian)網(wang)(wang)之間的(de)(de)互聯。促進新能(neng)(neng)源消(xiao)納：澳(ao)大(da)利亞總理提出到2050年(nian)實現(xian)(xian)凈零排放的(de)(de)目(mu)標。目(mu)前，澳(ao)洲電(dian)(dian)力(li)系統(tong)在短期內需要1～2個小時(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)來(lai)(lai)固化(hua)可再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)源間歇(xie)性的(de)(de)容量和進行日內能(neng)(neng)量時(shi)(shi)移(yi)。隨著更多(duo)火電(dian)(dian)站(zhan)退役，未(wei)來(lai)(lai)4～12小時(shi)(shi)的(de)(de)中(zhong)長時(shi)(shi)儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)將在更大(da)時(shi)(shi)間尺度(du)中(zhong)承擔能(neng)(neng)量時(shi)(shi)移(yi)的(de)(de)重(zhong)要角色(se)。支撐用(yong)戶賬單管理：澳(ao)大(da)利亞光照條件優越，且用(yong)戶電(dian)(dian)價較高，促使數萬套(tao)分(fen)(fen)布式光伏(fu)得以安裝，家用(yong)儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)配套(tao)建設(she)以實現(xian)(xian)光伏(fu)電(dian)(dian)力(li)自發(fa)自用(yong)，為儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)市場帶來(lai)(lai)了(le)廣闊的(de)(de)應(ying)用(yong)機會。據太陽能(neng)(neng)和儲(chu)(chu)能(neng)(neng)市場分(fen)(fen)析公(gong)司SunWiz公(gong)布的(de)(de)數據，2023年(nian)全年(nian)，澳(ao)大(da)利亞光伏(fu)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)新增裝機規模為4.6吉瓦，其(qi)中(zhong)，分(fen)(fen)布式光伏(fu)占比達68%。

澳大利亞儲能市場快速發(fa)展的(de)驅動因素

電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網基(ji)礎設施薄弱：澳大(da)利亞輸(shu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)網狹長、低密度分(fen)布(bu)，互(hu)聯線跳閘風險高，加(jia)(jia)之極端天氣頻(pin)繁，對電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)穩定造成較大(da)影響，使得儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)的需求日益迫切。可再生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)資源(yuan)(yuan)豐富：澳大(da)利亞可再生能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)裝(zhuang)機占(zhan)比不斷提升，需要儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)來(lai)固化間歇性能(neng)量。隨著未來(lai)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站的退役，中長時儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)需求將進(jin)一(yi)步增加(jia)(jia)。用戶側高電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價：高電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價催生了大(da)量分(fen)布(bu)式光伏的安裝(zhuang)，為家用儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)帶來(lai)了應(ying)用機會。同時，儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)產品價格的下降，進(jin)一(yi)步推動了戶用儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)的發(fa)(fa)展。如在2024年，部分(fen)地區由(you)于電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價上漲(zhang)，居民對安裝(zhuang)光伏發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)系(xi)統(tong)和儲(chu)(chu)(chu)能(neng)設備的需求仍在持(chi)續增加(jia)(jia)。

澳(ao)大利亞儲能市場特點

規(gui)(gui)(gui)模化電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)項目(mu)快速增(zeng)加：截至2023年(nian)(nian)6月(yue)，澳(ao)(ao)(ao)大(da)利亞(ya)(ya)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)項目(mu)累計(ji)裝機規(gui)(gui)(gui)模達(da)到(dao)(dao)1526兆瓦(wa)，同比增(zeng)長(chang)85.64%。2022～2023年(nian)(nian)，有704兆瓦(wa)的(de)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)進入(ru)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)，創歷史新(xin)(xin)高。在(zai)(zai)2024年(nian)(nian)澳(ao)(ao)(ao)大(da)利亞(ya)(ya)全(quan)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源展覽會(hui)上(shang)(shang)，海博思創與澳(ao)(ao)(ao)大(da)利亞(ya)(ya)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源集團Tesseract達(da)成戰略合(he)(he)作，合(he)(he)作項目(mu)規(gui)(gui)(gui)模近1吉瓦(wa)時，其中包括在(zai)(zai)南澳(ao)(ao)(ao)合(he)(he)作部(bu)署一個200MW/800MWh大(da)型儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)項目(mu)。電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)波(bo)動頻繁：電(dian)(dian)(dian)網規(gui)(gui)(gui)模儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)項目(mu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)量(liang)收益占比提升(sheng)(sheng)：2021年(nian)(nian)以(yi)前(qian)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)總收入(ru)的(de)80%以(yi)上(shang)(shang)來自(zi)于頻率控制(zhi)輔助服(fu)務市(shi)場(chang)(chang)（FCAS）。近兩年(nian)(nian)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)波(bo)動頻繁，電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)在(zai)(zai)現貨市(shi)場(chang)(chang)中的(de)套利空(kong)間加大(da)。2022年(nian)(nian)第三季度(du)和2023年(nian)(nian)第三季度(du)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)(neng)量(liang)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)收益超(chao)過FCAS市(shi)場(chang)(chang)收益。用戶(hu)側儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)持續(xu)增(zeng)長(chang)：2024年(nian)(nian)前(qian)三季度(du)，澳(ao)(ao)(ao)大(da)利亞(ya)(ya)配套電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)的(de)屋頂光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)項目(mu)數量(liang)達(da)到(dao)(dao)18900個，同比增(zeng)長(chang)15%。新(xin)(xin)南威爾士州、維多(duo)利亞(ya)(ya)州新(xin)(xin)增(zeng)配套電(dian)(dian)(dian)池(chi)(chi)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)光(guang)(guang)伏(fu)裝機數量(liang)最多(duo)。驅(qu)動因素(su)包括電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)上(shang)(shang)升(sheng)(sheng)、補(bu)貼政(zheng)策、對供電(dian)(dian)(dian)安全(quan)的(de)擔憂以(yi)及(ji)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)產品(pin)價(jia)格的(de)下降(jiang)。