現貨市場價格變動：

多晶硅：

今日N型(xing)料(liao)穩定(ding)，主(zhu)流(liu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格在39.0-41.0元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，均(jun)(jun)(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)40.5元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)。N型(xing)顆粒硅主(zhu)流(liu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格在36.0-38.0元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，均(jun)(jun)(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)37元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)。國(guo)產復投特級硅料(liao)主(zhu)流(liu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格在33.0-36.0元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，均(jun)(jun)(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)35.0元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，國(guo)產致密(mi)特級硅料(liao)主(zhu)流(liu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格在32.0-35.0元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)，均(jun)(jun)(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)34元(yuan)/公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)斤(jin)(jin)。

顆粒硅目(mu)前(qian)(qian)均價(jia)維(wei)持37元/公(gong)斤。本周通威(wei)以及大(da)全(quan)均有(you)計劃檢(jian)修暨(ji)階(jie)段性有(you)序減產控產，基于(yu)此，元旦后，市場(chang)對于(yu)硅料控產計劃落實(shi)預期明確。目(mu)前(qian)(qian)市場(chang)大(da)客戶混包成交在逐步企(qi)穩，價(jia)格維(wei)持在38-39元/公(gong)斤。貿易(yi)商詢價(jia)活躍(yue)度(du)增加，由于(yu)年底(di)部(bu)分硅片企(qi)業逐步補(bu)貨(huo)備(bei)貨(huo)增加，促(cu)使訂單成交量活躍(yue)度(du)也(ye)有(you)一(yi)定提升。

硅片：

今日硅(gui)(gui)片(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)整(zheng)體(ti)維穩(wen), 182mm單(dan)(dan)(dan)晶(jing)硅(gui)(gui)片(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)主(zhu)流現貨(huo)(huo)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)維持1-1.15元(yuan)(yuan)/片(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)，均(jun)價(jia)(jia)1.08元(yuan)(yuan)/片(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)。210mm單(dan)(dan)(dan)晶(jing)硅(gui)(gui)片(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)主(zhu)流現貨(huo)(huo)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)維持1.6-1.7元(yuan)(yuan)/片(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)，均(jun)價(jia)(jia)1.65元(yuan)(yuan)/片(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)。N型(xing)(xing)-182mm單(dan)(dan)(dan)晶(jing)硅(gui)(gui)片(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)主(zhu)流現貨(huo)(huo)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)維持1.05-1.1元(yuan)(yuan)/片(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)，均(jun)價(jia)(jia)1.08元(yuan)(yuan)/片(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)。N型(xing)(xing)-210mm單(dan)(dan)(dan)晶(jing)硅(gui)(gui)片(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)主(zhu)流現貨(huo)(huo)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)維持1.42-1.5元(yuan)(yuan)/片(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)，均(jun)價(jia)(jia)1.45元(yuan)(yuan)/片(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)。N型(xing)(xing)-210Rmm單(dan)(dan)(dan)晶(jing)硅(gui)(gui)片(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)主(zhu)流現貨(huo)(huo)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)1.15-1.25元(yuan)(yuan)/片(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)，均(jun)價(jia)(jia)1.2元(yuan)(yuan)/片(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)(pian)。

臨近(jin)月底，部分部分企(qi)業(ye)(ye)調整報價(jia)(jia)(jia)，本(ben)周N210硅(gui)片(pian)(pian)(pian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格均價(jia)(jia)(jia)維(wei)持(chi)(chi)1.45元/片(pian)(pian)(pian)，N210R硅(gui)片(pian)(pian)(pian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格均價(jia)(jia)(jia)執行1.2元/片(pian)(pian)(pian)，部分企(qi)業(ye)(ye)反饋隨(sui)著元旦控(kong)產預期，以及估計了(le)上漲(zhang)(zhang)預期的疊(die)加下(xia)，仍有調漲(zhang)(zhang)可能。N型183硅(gui)片(pian)(pian)(pian)小幅上漲(zhang)(zhang)2.86%，最新均價(jia)(jia)(jia)維(wei)持(chi)(chi)1.08元/片(pian)(pian)(pian)。

電池片：

今日電(dian)池(chi)片(pian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)整體(ti)維(wei)穩(wen)，23%以(yi)上(shang)182mm尺寸雙(shuang)面單晶perc主(zhu)(zhu)流(liu)(liu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)在(zai)0.27-0.29元/瓦(wa)(wa)，均(jun)(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)0.275元/瓦(wa)(wa)。23%以(yi)上(shang)210mm雙(shuang)面單晶perc主(zhu)(zhu)流(liu)(liu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)在(zai)0.28-0.3元/瓦(wa)(wa)，均(jun)(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)0.28元/瓦(wa)(wa)。24.3%以(yi)上(shang)182mm雙(shuang)面Topcon電(dian)池(chi)片(pian)主(zhu)(zhu)流(liu)(liu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)在(zai)0.275-0.285元/瓦(wa)(wa)，均(jun)(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)0.285元/瓦(wa)(wa)。24.3%以(yi)上(shang)210mm雙(shuang)面Topcon電(dian)池(chi)片(pian)主(zhu)(zhu)流(liu)(liu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)在(zai)0.28-0.29元/瓦(wa)(wa)，均(jun)(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)0.29元/瓦(wa)(wa)。24.3%以(yi)上(shang)210Rmm雙(shuang)面Topcon電(dian)池(chi)片(pian)主(zhu)(zhu)流(liu)(liu)價(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)在(zai)0.275-0.29元/瓦(wa)(wa)，均(jun)(jun)價(jia)(jia)(jia)0.285元/瓦(wa)(wa)。

受(shou)硅片(pian)上(shang)漲影(ying)響，本周N182*183.75電(dian)池(chi)片(pian)小幅上(shang)漲，訂單還未見大幅提升，但是從產業鏈的(de)(de)整體動態來(lai)看，隨著硅片(pian)成本的(de)(de)增加逐漸(jian)傳導至電(dian)池(chi)片(pian)環節(jie)，部分電(dian)池(chi)片(pian)生產企(qi)業對后續(xu)市(shi)場需求的(de)(de)復蘇抱有一定的(de)(de)預(yu)期。

組件：

今日組(zu)件(jian)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)整體(ti)穩定，雙(shuang)面(mian)單晶perc組(zu)件(jian)（182系(xi)(xi)列）價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)在(zai)0.6-0.67元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/ 瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，均價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)為0.67元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)。雙(shuang)面(mian)單晶perc組(zu)件(jian)（210系(xi)(xi)列）價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)在(zai)0.62-0.68元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/ 瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，均價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)為0.68元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)。N型(xing)(xing)雙(shuang)面(mian)Topcon 組(zu)件(jian)（182系(xi)(xi)列）價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)在(zai)0.62-0.7元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/ 瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，均價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)為0.7元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)。N型(xing)(xing)雙(shuang)面(mian)Topcon 組(zu)件(jian)（210系(xi)(xi)列）價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)在(zai)0.64-0.71元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/ 瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，均價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)為0.71元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)。N型(xing)(xing)雙(shuang)面(mian)HJT組(zu)件(jian)（210系(xi)(xi)列）價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)在(zai)0.69-0.78元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/ 瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，均價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)為0.75元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)。中國區項目(大于530W)價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)在(zai)0.645-0.71元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/ 瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，均價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)為0.685元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)。歐洲港(gang)口現貨價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)在(zai)0.085-0.101美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/ 瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，均價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)為0.094美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)。印度港(gang)口現貨價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)在(zai)0.098-0.22美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/ 瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，均價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)為0.215美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)。美(mei)(mei)國港(gang)口現貨價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)在(zai)0.26-0.28美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/ 瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)，均價(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)為0.265美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)/瓦(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)(wa)。

目(mu)前(qian) N-Topcon 585-595瓦(wa)(wa)組件(jian)(jian)，頭部(bu)企業報(bao)價(jia)(jia)維(wei)持(chi)在(zai)0.66-0.7元(yuan)(yuan)/瓦(wa)(wa)區間內(nei)，均(jun)(jun)價(jia)(jia)穩定(ding)維(wei)持(chi)在(zai)0.7元(yuan)(yuan)/瓦(wa)(wa)，二線企業組件(jian)(jian)報(bao)價(jia)(jia)也底部(bu)抬高至0.62-0.66元(yuan)(yuan)/瓦(wa)(wa)。本周(zhou)企業報(bao)價(jia)(jia)維(wei)穩，價(jia)(jia)格(ge)波動不大， 年底企業排產(chan)量(liang)有(you)支(zhi)撐，并未有(you)明顯(xian)減產(chan)行(xing)為。另外受(shou)本周(zhou)上(shang)游整體價(jia)(jia)格(ge)上(shang)漲影響，組件(jian)(jian)企業暫且價(jia)(jia)格(ge)方面還(huan)未太多(duo)變化(hua)，不過針對近期項(xiang)目(mu)年度集采中標(biao)(biao)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)來看，整體組件(jian)(jian)企業已落(luo)實自控(kong)限價(jia)(jia)要求，組件(jian)(jian)中樞報(bao)價(jia)(jia)均(jun)(jun)維(wei)持(chi)在(zai)0.68元(yuan)(yuan)/瓦(wa)(wa)以上(shang)。年底較多(duo)五大六小(xiao)項(xiang)目(mu)招(zhao)標(biao)(biao)預計在(zai)年后逐步開(kai)標(biao)(biao)，其(qi)開(kai)標(biao)(biao)結果對于(yu)市(shi)場(chang)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)走向具有(you)重(zhong)大的(de)指引(yin)作用(yong)，尤其(qi)是對于(yu)市(shi)場(chang)廣泛關注的(de)”0.68”元(yuan)(yuan)/瓦(wa)(wa)的(de)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)節點注入確定(ding)性(xing)因素(su)。

期貨市場：

行情走勢：今日多晶硅期貨主力合約收盤價為41950元 / 噸，前結算價為41845元/噸，收盤價較前結算價漲幅為0.25% ，收(shou)盤價(jia)較(jiao)開(kai)盤價(jia)漲(zhang)350元(yuan)/噸，漲(zhang)幅為(wei)0.83%，成交量為172813手，持倉量為32846手。

市場情緒面

樂觀情緒因素：

減(jian)產預(yu)期(qi)：本周(zhou)龍頭硅(gui)料(liao)企(qi)業均公布檢(jian)修控產預(yu)期(qi)，后續會有(you)計(ji)劃檢(jian)修暨階(jie)段性(xing)有(you)序(xu)減(jian)產控產，基于(yu)此，元旦后，市場(chang)對于(yu)硅(gui)料(liao)控產計(ji)劃落實預(yu)期(qi)明確。供(gong)應端的減(jian)產預(yu)期(qi)使(shi)得市場(chang)認(ren)為多晶硅(gui)的供(gong)需關(guan)系將得到改善，從而對現貨價(jia)格(ge)形成支(zhi)撐(cheng)，提升了市場(chang)的樂觀情緒。另外臨近年底近期(qi)硅(gui)料(liao)新簽單情況(kuang)稍有(you)好轉(zhuan)，部分(fen)硅(gui)片企(qi)業提前備(bei)貨，顯示出一(yi)定的需求回(hui)暖跡象；截至(zhi)本周五，下(xia)(xia)游硅(gui)(gui)片(pian)與電池片(pian)環節紛紛上(shang)調了(le)報價，硅(gui)(gui)料價格(ge)的上(shang)漲預(yu)期已傳導至(zhi)下(xia)(xia)游領(ling)域(yu)。

成本壓力：多晶硅(gui)生產耗電(dian)量(liang)大(da)，電(dian)力成本在總成本中占主導(dao)，雖然產能(neng)過剩背景下，價(jia)格仍受壓制，但是受控產因素影響，以及目前硅(gui)料成本端的壓力制約也使得市場對多晶硅(gui)現貨(huo)價(jia)格的走勢產生了強底支撐的預期。

悲觀情緒因素：

需(xu)求疲弱(ruo)(ruo)：行業傳統淡(dan)季來臨，下游需(xu)求偏弱(ruo)(ruo)，需(xu)求以及價格(ge)將會(hui)有所(suo)承(cheng)壓，這(zhe)些因素導致市場對多晶硅現(xian)貨的(de)需(xu)求端預期較為悲觀，從而(er)影響了市場情(qing)緒。